As the coalition government in Andhra Pradesh approaches the halfway mark of its five-year term, questions are increasingly being raised about public sentiment toward its performance. Against this backdrop, a survey titled ‘Mood of Andhra’, reportedly conducted by a group of IITians based in Hyderabad, has highlighted several interesting trends regarding the political mood in the state.
Survey Conducted Across All 175 Constituencies
According to the organisation, the survey was conducted across all 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh in three phases between June 18 and August 20. The group claimed that it collected opinions directly from 190,550 people.
The survey reportedly covered farmers, employees, unemployed youth, businesspeople, middle-class families and people from various other sections of society. It also included respondents across different age groups, from 18 to above 60 years.
Public Satisfaction With Coalition Government
The survey presented mixed feedback on the performance of the coalition government.
While 4% of respondents said they were very satisfied with the government, another 30% said they were satisfied. However, 45% reportedly expressed strong dissatisfaction with the coalition government’s performance.
When respondents were asked which political party would be better for Andhra Pradesh’s development, 44.5% favoured the YSRCP, while 40% supported the coalition.
Law and Order Remains a Concern
On the issue of law and order, 7% of respondents said they were very satisfied, while 30% expressed general satisfaction.
The survey also asked about alleged irregularities in the DSC recruitment process. Around 48% of respondents reportedly believed that irregularities had taken place, while 39% said there had been no irregularities.
Regarding anti-government sentiment, 42% of respondents said there was opposition to the government, while 36% said there was no such opposition.
Corruption, Farmers’ Issues and Unemployment Among Major Concerns
The survey identified several issues that respondents considered major problems facing Andhra Pradesh.
- 27% cited corruption involving MLAs and ministers.
- 25% pointed to the lack of remunerative prices for farmers and tenant farmers.
- 21% identified unemployment as a major concern.
- 15% cited law and order.
- 12% mentioned the implementation of welfare schemes.
The findings suggest that corruption, agricultural distress and unemployment remain among the most significant concerns for voters.
Y.S. Jagan Leads CM Preference
When respondents were asked whom they would like to see as the next Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy reportedly received the highest support at 44%.
He was followed by:
- Chandrababu Naidu – 32%
- Pawan Kalyan – 6%
- Nara Lokesh – 5%
The survey also asked whether the coalition would return to power in the 2029 Assembly elections. Around 39% believed that the coalition would return to power, while 44% felt that it would not.
Comparison Between YSRCP and Coalition Rule
Respondents were also asked to compare the previous YSRCP government with the current coalition government.
According to the survey:
- 41% said YSRCP rule was better.
- 38% said coalition rule was better.
- 12% felt that both governments were similar.
The relatively narrow gap between the two sides indicates a competitive political environment, according to the survey findings.
What If TDP, Jana Sena and BJP Contest Together?
One of the survey’s key projections concerns possible electoral scenarios in 2029.
If TDP, Jana Sena and BJP contest together, while the YSRCP contests independently, the survey estimates:
- YSRCP – 45.5% vote share
- Coalition – 44.5% vote share
Based on these figures, the survey projects approximately 83 seats for YSRCP and 62 seats for the coalition, with another 30 constituencies expected to witness a close contest.
What If TDP, Jana Sena and BJP Contest Separately?
The survey also examined a scenario in which the three coalition partners contest separately.
Under this scenario, it estimates:
- YSRCP – 47%
- TDP – 36%
The projected seat distribution is:
- YSRCP – 110 to 112 seats
- TDP – 43 to 45 seats
- Jana Sena – 2 to 4 seats
- BJP – Possibly no seats
This scenario would significantly alter the electoral equation, according to the survey.
YSRCP-TDP Separate, Jana Sena-BJP Together
Another scenario considered by the survey involves YSRCP and TDP contesting independently, while Jana Sena and BJP contest together.
The estimated vote shares are:
- YSRCP – 46.5%
- TDP – 35%
- Jana Sena-BJP alliance – 10.5%
The survey projects:
- YSRCP – 95 to 96 seats
- TDP – 40 to 41 seats
- Jana Sena-BJP – 7 to 9 seats
Coalition MLAs Classified Into Red, Orange and Green Zones
The survey reportedly classified the coalition’s MLAs across the erstwhile 13 districts into three categories based on their perceived electoral position.
According to the findings:
- 72 coalition MLAs – Red Zone
- 30 MLAs – Orange Zone
- 73 MLAs – Green Zone
Among coalition ministers, 10 were placed in the Red Zone, 8 in the Orange Zone and 7 in the Green Zone.
The classification indicates that a significant number of sitting legislators could face challenges if the current political trends continue, according to the survey.
YSRCP’s Recovery Raises Political Questions
The YSRCP was reduced to just 11 Assembly seats in the 2024 elections. The latest survey projections, however, indicate that the party could potentially move much closer to power within two years.
The apparent recovery of YSRCP in these projections has triggered discussion within political circles, particularly regarding voter dissatisfaction, anti-incumbency and the performance of the coalition government.
Survey Results Are Estimates, Not Election Results
At the same time, the ‘Mood of Andhra’ findings should be viewed as survey-based estimates rather than definitive predictions of the 2029 election outcome. Political preferences can change significantly depending on government performance, welfare delivery, candidate selection, alliances, local issues and developments closer to the election.
Nevertheless, the organisation’s claim that it collected opinions from 190,550 people across all 175 Assembly constituencies gives the survey significance in the ongoing political debate.
If the present trends reflected in the survey were to continue, the possibility of YSRCP making a substantial electoral comeback could emerge as an important political challenge for the ruling coalition. For the TDP-Jana Sena-BJP alliance, the findings could therefore serve as a political warning signal well ahead of the 2029 Assembly elections.
